Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Azrul Azwar Ahmad : The Malaysian Insider "AAA" Rating

I am hardly hardpressed to say I told you so.

In a previous posting, Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajudin - Anwar Ibrahim Clone, I made these remarks,
"It is not unlike TMI to change it's tune when you consider it's previous headline "tea leaves", when breaking the story, is now a "forecast".

Thus, I am giving the Bank Islam chief economist the benefit of a doubt only because I am skeptical of the TMI report. I am unable to trace the Singapore Straits Times report as claimed by TMI."

When The Malaysian Insider first scooped the story, it was headlined "In tea leaves, economist sees slender Pakatan win" and in an update it headlined responses in "Bank Islam economist’s polls forecast ruffles feathers"

Two issues here.

TMI initally gives En AAA crystal ball honours and when it caught attention, yours truly included, TMI made En AAA more credible with "calculations" in a their "forecast".

"Tea leaves" would imply "Tasseomancy", using spiritual or crytal balls to predict the future, whereas "forecast" implies a plausible prediction through study or data.

The other issue, in "ruffled feathers" TMI uses it's usual run of the mill attention seeking, headline grabbing tactic to run down the government with zero substantiation.

What was reported was in fact contradictory. From "ruffled feathers",
"Umno MP Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan, however, pooh-poohed Azrul Azwar’s prediction, calling it “ridiculous” speculation that was merely made to create false hopes for the federal opposition pact.

The Sabah BN secretary added that the banker’s reading was likely biased as the latter is known to be a member of PKR’s Putrajaya division.

“I admire his enthusiasm but I think he should plant his feet firmly on the ground,” Abdul Rahman said."
How this can be considered "ruffled" only the most hardened of die-hard opposition supporters will agree.

Also what was reported in the Straits Times of Singapore is moot on several accounts.

The Malaysian Insider also reported, "Bank Islam distances from its economist’s polls forecast"

The point here is, together with the Straits Times report and responses all duly reported by TMI, there was no reported response from the person embroiled in the affair, En AAA.

You wonder whether TMI did bother to get En AAA's side of the story or they already had it.

Oddly enough, En AAA gives his side of the story only after being suspended.

Read what has now been reported in Malaysiakini, Malaysia's leading opposition news portal, "Bank Islam chief economist suspended",
“As no two GEs can provide almost exactly the same reading and in view of the surprise GE12 results, predicting the outcome of the GE13 could prove very challenging and a highly speculative attempt,” Azrul Azwar said in his controversial presentation.

He gave three scenarios relating to the forthcoming general election.

1) Scenario with high probability:

Narrow loss for BN, securing only 97-107 parliamentary seats (narrow victory for Pakatan: 115-125)
Failure to retake Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Kelantan
Lose control of Perak, Negri Sembilan, Terengganu and Perlis
Narrowly retain Pahang and Johor
Lose significant ground in Malacca, Sabah and Sarawak

2) Scenario with moderate probability:

Narrow win for BN, securing 112-122 parliamentary seats (narrow loss for Pakatan: 100-110)
Failure to retake Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Kelantan
Lose control of Perak and Negri Sembilan

3) Scenario with low probability:

Big loss for BN, securing only 82-92 parliamentary seats (big victory for PR: 130-140)
Failure to retake Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Kelantan
Lose control of Perak, Negri Sembilan, Terengganu, Perlis and Pahang
Narrowly retain Johor and Malacca
Lose significant ground in Sabah and Sarawak
Short-term negative impact
To be fair to En AAA, I see nothing wrong with the above and it looks more like prepared notes. Also En AAA does say all this, "tea leaves", "forecast" and "calculations" as reported by TMI, is speculative. Not only speculative, highly speculative.

But En AAA reportedly does not deny that, "He also speculated that a Pakatan win may have a short-term negative impact on the economy, especially from sabotage by pro-BN businesses and civil service",
"He also speculated that a Pakatan win may have a short-term negative impact on the economy, especially from sabotage by pro-BN businesses and civil service, though he predicted that the long-term political and economic effects could make Malaysia better off with the emergence of a genuine two-party system and stronger checks and balances."
Now, this type of speculation is uncalled for and highly disparaging of the private and public sector business and services.

It tarnishes and could jeopardise many GLC's in joint-ventures and investments. Federal and state government civil services would not take kindly to this specuation.

Not a speculation but untrue. Just ask PM Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng or his PKR comrade Selangor MB Tan Sri Khalid.

Does it look like Putrajaya cause, as reported by The Malaysian Insider's "ruffled feathers", EN AAA to be suspended? That's laughable.

It therefore does not help En AAA's case when he blames political motivation for his suspension.

Political motive exists only in the mind of En AAA and no surprise the person politicising En AAA's predicament is his clone seed, Anwar Ibrahim.

Cloning has it's defects.

Anwar Ibrahim conveniently deletes Malaysiakini's report of EN AAA's disparaging remarks,
"He also speculated that a Pakatan win may have a short-term negative impact on the economy, though he predicted that the long-term political and economic effects will make Malaysia better off with the emergence of a genuine two-party system and stronger checks and balances"
If you don't see it, you would be as blind as opposition supporters.

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