Thursday, February 7, 2013

Calculative Liew Chin Tong Prediction

We all know the DAP party is so chauvinistically Chinese. It took a technical error for a Malay to be eventually "elected" into the CEC in their national party elections. At the same time, you could count the fingers on one hand or even less, among the members of parliament elected into the CEC, there is anyone worthy of being a member in the august house of parliament.

The most unworthy and preposterous must be the MP for Bukit Bendera, Liew Chin Tong.

In fact, Free Malaysia Today is most wanting to report the MP's farcical, I had a first hand experience hearing Liew's political gibberish at a SUARAM forum in Penang, and "hopeful" calculations and prediction, ‘BN’s Johor fortress can be broken’

Nobody needs any reminding that 8/3/2008 was the worst election result in the history of Barisan Nasional.

It was so bad that the election was termed a "tsunami" for the opposition.

And yet, and yet, the score for parliamentary seats in the Johore state was - BN 25 PR 1.

Here is the breakdown of seats won by BN with a majority in excess of 10,000 votes:
1. P143 - PAGOH Maj: 12581

2. P147 - PARIT SULONG Maj: 13599

3. P148 - AYER HITAM Maj: 13909

4. P149 - SRI GADING Maj: 10874

5. P150 - BATU PAHAT Maj: 12704

6. P153 - SEMBRONG Maj: 11570

7. P154 - MERSING Maj: 13736

8. P155 - TENGGARA Maj: 14049

9. P156 - KOTA TINGGI Maj: 18961

10. P158 - TEBRAU Maj: 14658

11 P159 - PASIR GUDANG Maj: 17281

12. P160 - JOHOR BAHRU Maj: 25349

13. P161 - PULAI Maj: 20449

14. P163 - KULAI Maj: 11744

15. P164 - PONTIAN Maj: 14444

16. P165 - TANJONG PIAI Maj: 12371
Source The Star
Of the other 9 seats won by BN, one was uncontested, 6 had the margin of majority from 4,000 to 9,000 votes and only 2 by 2,900 and 3,800 votes respectively.

Remember, this was the "tsunami", caused in no small part by the ineffective Pak Lah, when there was a substantial swing of votes to the opposition, notably from the Chinese and Indian voters.

In the week, during which Datuk Seri Najib had just taken over the post of prime minister in 3rd April 2009, BN could only capture 1 of 3 by-elections.

Opposition euphoria continued in July and August that same year with PR winning 2 more by-elections.

Back to the present time and the FMT report,
Liew believes greater cooperation among Pakatan partners can improve all-round support from various communities.

“As election approaches, I believe the gaps will narrow if PAS and DAP, with the help of PKR, manage to convince supporters to vote for each other in the context of the coalition,” he said

From purely mathematics simulations, Liew listed several possible post-election scenarios in Johor, assuming Indian support for Pakatan is constant:
•Malay support at 25%, Chinese support at 65%, Pakatan will win just one parliamentary seat in Johor;
•Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 70%, Pakatan will win six seats;
•Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 12 seats;
•Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 16 seats;
•Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 80%, Pakatan will win 20 seats.
Although his forecast was just simulations on paper, Liew said it showed optimism that BN’s Johor fortress can crumble in a perfect storm.
Now, it is the turn of the DAP MP to be reminded, by the tailend of 2009, the leadership of Datuk Seri Najib showed acceptance by the rakyat voting for BN in the last by-election that year.

Liew Chin Tong, may have conveniently forgotten, Datuk Seri Najib had revived BN fortunes, leading the governing coalition in 2010 to 3 of 4 by-election victories.

By 2011, the prime minister had weathered the "tsunami" and turned the tide with BN winning all 3 by-elections that year.

What it all means is since assuming position as PM and under Datuk Seri Najib's effective leadership and administration of the country, BN has become stronger as the days go by, up till the present time.

Perusing the 2008 Johore election results where BN thumped PR 25 to 1, measures into Liew Chin Tong's calculation of PR winning only 1 seat, "assuming Indian support for Pakatan is constant"(??). He is also saying with an increase of 10%(??) Malay support (Look at the wide margin of BN wins above) and 80% Chinese support, Pakatan Rakyat will carry Johore with a score of 20 to 6.

Liew's calculation, with 35% Malay support and 80% Chinese support for PR the score will be 20 to 6, is wrong and should be 25 to 1, but in favour of Barisan Nasional! Because isn't that the 2008 Johore election result in the worst of BN times.

In fact, DAP must be concerned and Liew should be hopeful, that there is a 100% Chinese support for the DAP in the only seat it won in 2008.

A 1% swing of Chinese support to BN and "assuming Indian support for Pakatan is constant" (whatever it means), would cause the DAP seat to fall. The DAP candidate won the Bakri seat, with a 722 vote margin, in the best of their time.

It is also moot the 1,561 spoilt votes would have gone to the BN candidate. There was an unprecedented high number of spoilt votes nationwide as a sign of protest against the ineffective Pak Lah by BN supporters and the DAP candidate would have lost had it not been the case.

As recent events have unfolded, borrowing Liew's words "PAS and DAP, with the help of PKR", in a "word", belies his optimism and for that reason there is no snowball chance in hell, of a swing in Malay votes for the fast dismantling opposition coalition.

It will come as no surprise, with the help of PKR, Liew Chin Tong had his calculations based solely on the other similar election calculation, that of a chief economist and PKR member, Encik AAA.

My advise to the DAP MP for Bukit Bendera, don't attempt complicated calculations, your party cannot even manage simple mathematical addition and subtraction but excellent, however, in magical addition, for a particular Malay in your party polls.

6 comments:

Tony Yew said...

And lets not forget that most of us voted in the opposition, not as Pakatan Rakyat but as DAP, PAS OR PKR.

And we did that to send a message to Pak Lah. When Najib took over, it was a new ball game, and havent he been on the ball!

Where Najib has focussed on developing Malaysia to higher grounds, Anwar has focussed on belittling Malaysia in the eyes of the world.

And his henchmen? busy conducting street demos et al.

Najib has still got a lot of cleaning up to do in his adminisration, but imagine the tussle that PKR, PAS and DAP have on their hands should they form the next government.

While every politician jostles for position now, it is clear that the way forward for Malaysia is to ensure that it has an effective government (in BN) and an effective opposition (in PR), though for now all the opposition has shown is their ability to oppose and nothing more. (think Lynas, Langat 2)

Freddie Kevin said...

Bro Tony,

You got to hand it to PM DS Najib, he cannot afford the luxury of campaigning. While the likes of Anwar and LGE are running down the country 24/7, DS Najib has more important things to do, like running an effective govt.

Thanks and best regards
Freddie

pakteh adam said...

God willing Najib will go through.

Hope fisrt and foremost things to do is to get his house clear (UMNO). Lets clear whatever thing hidden by his maid under the carpet.

For the last four years, he surely could check all his recorded cctv,who is stealing and who is sleeping.

We are all whit him.

May God bless him.

Anonymous said...

Thamby, can we take a bet on your Johor predictions for PR total defeat next GE13?
Haha.

~ Freddie Kevin fan

Freddie Kevin said...

Pakteh,

No one has ever said BN and the govt is perfect. DS Najib is working very hard and the GE is very very near. Given the mandate, a new BN govt will be able to continue it's transformations and clean up it's house.

Thank you for the comment

Regards
Freddie

Freddie Kevin said...

Anon 00.22,

BN must not take matters for granted. It would be nice to have total PR defeat but that is not reality. It will be tough and that is why all of us must do our part to give the BN all the support to continue leading the country.

I am humbled, you being a fan.

Thank you and best regards
Freddie